Tropical depression could form this week in the Caribbean: forecasters

Activity is heating up in the tropics with four areas being monitored, including an area of ​​low pressure that could develop into a tropical depression this week as it moves west-northwestward toward the Caribbean.

As of Sunday morning, the National Hurricane Center had given it a 30% chance of developing over the next 48 hours and 70% over the next five days. Experts said gradual development is expected as it moves across the central Atlantic and into the central and western Caribbean.

It was producing disorganized thunderstorms on Sunday as it moved west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph. If a tropical depression or tropical storm were to form, it would be called Danielle.

A second trough of low pressure could develop over the northwestern Caribbean this week, and slow development is possible as it moves west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and to Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula.

On Sunday, the National Hurricane Center gave him a 20% chance of developing over the next five days.

A third disturbance located about 600 miles east of Bermuda on Sunday was given a 10% chance of developing within the five-day forecast.

A fourth area of ​​interest is a tropical wave expected to emerge off the west coast of Africa on Monday.

None of the systems are a threat to Florida at this time.

It might just end up being the third august since 1961 there were no tropical storms in the Atlantic, according to AccuWeather.

There have only been three named storms this season so far – Alex, Bonnie and Colin – with the last, Colin, dissipating on July 3, meaning this 56-day streak is the third-longest in the story of the unnamed Atlantic hurricane season. storm since 1995.

The longest dry spell since 1995 lasted 61 days, from June 18 to August 18, 1999. However, this two-month period of inactivity was followed by a frenetic conclusion to hurricane season which featured five storms of category 4 (Bret, Cindy, Floyd, Gert, and Lenny) and dank category 2 Irene, who reached a rarity, with her eye passing Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties in mid-October. There was also a 59-day streak during the 2007 season.

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Forecasters say dry air, Saharan dust and wind shear have been among the reasons there haven’t been more storms this year.

The most active part of hurricane season is from mid-August to late October, with September 10 being the statistical peak of the season.

The last Atlantic hurricane was Sam, which became a hurricane on September 24 and maintained that status until October 5 as it wound its way between the United States and Bermuda.

Of the three named storms so far this season, only Alex has made its presence known in South Florida in dumping up to 12 inches of rain In certain regions.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its updated forecast for the hurricane season earlier this month.

NOAA predicts 14 to 20 named storms and 6 to 10 hurricanes, including 3 to 5 major ones, i.e. Category 3 or higher.

Hurricane season ends on November 30.

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