The volume was huge for Harris during his impressive fantasy rookie campaign when he played a whopping 171 snaps more than the next closest RB yet ranked 48th in fantasy points per opportunity. The coaches were already talking about it reduce Harris’ workload earlier this summerwhich will be easier by the emergence of the recruit Jaylen Warren.
With Ben Roethlisberger stop relying on dumps and play for a team with one of the worst offensive lines and quarterback situations in all of football, Harris is unlikely to justify his lofty ADP.
Najee is now even riskier in the drafts with news of him recovering from a recurring foot injury.
Over-draft is a better way to describe Mixon than a true “bust,” but it won’t be easy for him to return value at such a high ADP while still leaving the field on transmissions. Mixon is a threat to score double-digit touchdowns again behind an improved Bengals offensive line (and it helps to have a QB who easily led the league in YPA), but Cincinnati refusing to use it because the team’s return harms his fantasy.
Dallas Cowboys: Ezekiel Elliott
Elliott is the first running back in decades to see his rushing yards per game have declined in five straight seasons and has a worrying workload (Historically, RBs begin to show a noticeable decline when reaching 1,500 Career Rush Attempts). While Elliott’s poor output last year can be partly blamed on playing through a torn PCL, don’t forget he was bad before suffering from a knee injury.
While Dallas could stay stubborn and keep Zeke as a feature, it’s clear that he is not the best option in the team in this position.
Los Angeles Rams: Cam Akers
As impressive as Akers’ early comeback was after his Achilles tear last season, he also looked like a shell of himself while getting just 2.6 YPC on 67 playoff rushing attempts. He finished last among 105 running backs in rushing yards above expectations by a wide margin. While it’s entirely possible that Akers will return in 2022 with a blast further from the injury, history suggests this may be the new him, Sadly. Plus, the Rams running backs haven’t combined for better than one. 12.5% target share in one of the last three seasonsand no less than 80% of the team’s touchdowns came through the pass last year.
Whereas Sean McVay has usually likes to use a feature in returnthe Rams have been divide the work with the starters equally between Akers and Darrel Henderson this summer. Henderson has durability issues, but he can also be the team’s best running back. Akers is already struggling with a soft tissue injury and is a real risk of being drafted as a borderline top 20 RB.
Arizona Cardinals: James Conner
Connect to a long history of injuries and missed multiple games in each season of his five-year career. Whereas Chase Edmonds left, A Benjamin impressed and should take over as Arizona comeback (and if not him, then newcomer Darrel Williams).
Conner still has good touchdown potential, but lose receive work would be huge at his fantasy value (he only once passed 755 rushing yards and never reached 1,000 in his career). The volatile Conner has proven to be a fantastic top pick when he comes out of a sluggish season, but he enters 2022 with high expectations.
Baltimore Ravens: JK Dobbins
The average RB drop in fantasy points per game in the season following ACL surgery has been around 17% since 2009, and Dobbins didn’t exactly come back to full power this summer. He’s clearly the best running back in Baltimore, but he may not be close to 100% until the second half of the season (if not next year) and plays for a Ravens team that loves split runs with his running backs. He also has a quarterback capable of rushing in the scores and has targeted his RBs a 12.9% low in the NFL since 2017.