Chet Holmgren’s injury upsets NBA Rookie of the Year B/R rankings | News, Scores, Highlights, Stats & Rumors

0 out of 5

    Keegan Murray (Bart Young/NBAE via Getty Images)

    NBA Rookie of the Year odds received an update on Thursday after it was announced that Chet Holmgren miss the season with a foot injury.

    Our projection since last month have also changed.

    It’s a brutal blow to the Oklahoma City Thunder and the No. 2 pick, who displayed his ridiculous advantage in the summer league, showed a different level of skill than he could Gonzaga and s is ranked #3 in our original ranking.

    The injury could open the door to a few other selected prospects outside the top five. While the favorite hasn’t changed, another rookie has entered the discussion.

1 out of 5

    Benoit Mathurin (Jeff Bottari/NBAE via Getty Images)

    FanDuel Rookie of the Year Odds: +1100

    The rookie of the year debate loses Holmgren and adds Bennedict Mathurin.

    He’s coming off a stellar summer league, where he averaged 19.3 points in just 22.4 minutes in three games for the Indiana Pacers.

    Mathurin has a plug-and-play combination of NBA physical tools, explosiveness, and shooting. And at 6’7″, 210 pounds, he’s playable at 3, which will maximize his chances of logging minutes in a rotation that already includes Chris Duarte and Buddy Hield.

    Mathurin’s rookie of the year chances will get really interesting if the Pacers trade Hield, who still seems to be the subject of rumors.

    The 2022 No. 6 pick still has room to improve as a creator, and Indiana will likely let Tyrese Haliburton make the majority of the offense’s decisions. Either way, Mathurin is built to score immediately without the ball thanks to his shooting versatility, transition game and power/athleticism to finish off-line drives and cuts.

2 out of 5

    Jaden Ivey (AP Photo/John Locher)

    FanDuel Rookie of the Year Odds: +500

    At +500, Jaden Ivey is suddenly one of three betting favorites to win Rookie of the Year following Holmgren’s injury.

    Holmgren was undoubtedly going to be more efficient and productive defensively than Ivey, so the backhand of the No. 2 pick makes Ivey’s path clearer.

    The Detroit Pistons rookie is expected to have a supporting role cutting, cutting and scouting alongside Cade Cunningham, who will handle most of the creative work. Ivey can play more to his strengths, tapping into his particular explosiveness and shooting pace, rather than being forced to run too much on offense and having to create something out of nothing.

    Given Ivey’s three-point record in two years at Purdue (32.2 percent), it’s safe to assume he’ll be in for some tough shooting times. But between his improved throwing, gripping and passing, and his ability to sporadically catch fire from the outside, he should produce enough goals and secondary plays to challenge for the top three Rookie of the Year votes.

3 out of 5

    Jabari Smith Jr. (Zach Beeker/NBAE via Getty Images)

    FanDuel Rookie of the Year Odds: +600

    Holmgren’s projected efficiency and shot blocking initially gave him an edge over Jabari Smith Jr. for Rookie of the Year. With Holmgren out, Smith’s combination of use and shooting should propel him into the top three.

    He’ll have every chance to play through errors with the Houston Rockets, which should lead to a low field goal percentage for a starting forward. But Smith is too skilled a shooter not to produce, especially one who doesn’t need a lot of dribbling and has a tough exit point to contest.

    Smith has also looked exceptional at times defensively in Las Vegas, mostly slipping his feet. He might not block shots at high rate, but he will challenge the most in one-on-one situations with the way he sits in one position and moves laterally. Scottie Barnes didn’t put up wild steal (1.1 per game) or block (0.7) numbers last year, but his defense likely played a part in the ROY votes he has received.

    If there’s any reason to hesitate before betting on Smith, it should be because of his expected confidence in his teammates’ play and concerns about his 43.5 two-point percentage at Auburn. The Rockets are short on passers, and Smith’s disappointing explosiveness may limit him inside the arc.

4 out of 5

    Keegan Murray (David Dow/NBAE via Getty Images)

    FanDuel Rookie of the Year Odds: +500

    Keegan Murray was our projected finalist even before Holmgren’s setback.

    Injury issues aside, the scare with Holmgren for 2022-23 has centered on his goal production and whether he was creative or strong enough to immediately post big attacking numbers.

    That won’t be a problem for Murray, the summer league MVP who just turned 22. He also produces with enough versatility to generate attack in various ways without the need for featured keys.

    While the flashes of self-creation at Iowa may not translate immediately, his shooting, transition play, cutting, post-finishing and defensive activity look likely to continue.

    Given the Kings took him fourth, they need to feel comfortable playing him long minutes next to Domantas Sabonis, so the rookie should have plenty of opportunities to make plays both on and off the court. ball.

5 out of 5

    Paolo Banchero (Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

    FanDuel Rookie of the Year Odds: +200

    Paolo Banchero looks like an even safer rookie of the year bet after Holmgren’s injury. He was the outgoing favorite in the summer league due to the high level of skill he displayed as a shooter and passer, as well as being physically ready at 6’10”, 250 pounds.

    Banchero is also eyeing a much-used starting role in a roster that needs more frontline creation and offense. He can immediately be the Orlando Magic’s No. 1 option and the biggest threat to defenses with his combination of big man play, pulling shot, post play and physicality around the rim.

    Holmgren could have been his No. 1 challenger, considering he was also considering a full-time role and was willing to produce with a unique differentiating stat like shot blocking. Banchero is a setter for his position. And when added to his projected goal production and rebounds, Banchero remains in control to follow Barnes’ 2021-22 victory.


    Odds via FanDuel.

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