- Democrats lead the congressional poll 44%-40%, better than an even split in June.
- Across all demographic groups, most Americans say the country is on the wrong track.
- Main problems? Only the economy, abortion and inflation quoted in double digits.
- At stake in November is the power to pass laws and launch investigations.
A hundred days before the midterm elections, Americans are worried about the future and unhappy with their options.
A new USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll shows Democrats have a slight advantage over Republicans in the Congressional ballot, 44% to 40%, a little better than the 40%-40% split they scored in June. But the country’s sluggish economy and politics still pose big hurdles to Democratic hopes of avoiding big losses in November.
Voters by 47% to 42% say they want to elect a Congress that mostly resists President Joe Biden rather than a Congress that mostly cooperates with him.
At stake in November is the power to pass laws and launch investigations – whether in the January 6 uprising Where Hunter Biden’s finances – and the prospects for collaboration between Congress and the president during the second two years of his mandate.
“Everything seems to be in flux,” said James English, 60, a Republican-leaning independent from Sugar Valley, Texas, who was called into the investigation. When asked what was the most important issue for his vote, he replied: “Generally, stability, if it’s economical or personal safety.”
“It’s a bit disturbing, just because the bipartisan divide makes everyone angry and has a lot of resentment towards other parties,” Cherish Derrickson, 23, a Democratic law student from Lexington, Kentucky, said in a statement. follow-up interview. “I wouldn’t necessarily say the country is burning, but it’s definitely receding, especially with the suppression of women’s reproductive rights.”
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By 5-1, 76%-15%, respondents say the country is on the wrong track rather than in the right direction. A majority of people from all demographic groups – regardless of party and region, race and age – agree on this.
The mood is more serious than it was in the USA TODAY/Suffolk poll conducted around this time in 2018, before the first half-terms of Donald Trump’s presidency. Americans then said 55%-34% that the nation was headed down the wrong path – not a rosy assessment, but more optimistic in double digits than today. Trump’s approval rating then was 40% to 56%, almost exactly the same as Biden’s current approval rating of 39% to 56%.
That fall, Republicans won two Senate seats but lost 40 seats and their majority in the House.
The new survey of 1,000 registered voters, taken by landline and mobile from Friday to Monday, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Economic concerns fuel the debate
Worries about the economy and inflation stimulate political debate. Growth figures due out on Thursday will show whether the economy has contracted for two consecutive quarters, the common definition of a recession, but 50% of Americans say a recession has already arrived.
Only 9% say the economy is now recovering.
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In response to an open-ended question, 20% cite the economy in general and 11% inflation in particular as their main problem. The only other concern to reach double digits is abortion, at 16%, an issue that has been propelled by the Supreme Court decision last month reverse the recognition of access to abortion as a constitutionally protected right.
All other issues, including some of the hottest political ones, are far behind: Immigration/border control at 5%, weapon control at 3%, climate change/environment at 3%, health at 3%, voting rights/integrity at 2%, education/student loans at 1%. The COVID-19 pandemic is not registering at all.
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“For these respondents, a recession is not a perception, it’s a reality,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk Political Research Center. “Low-income households have been particularly hard hit by being forced to make critical allocation choices for every dollar at their disposal.”
What matters to Julie Clifford, 62, Republican from Burleson, Texas, is the economy. Highest inflation rate in four decades made it difficult for people like her who live on a fixed income, the retired engineer said. “We just have to make choices about what we do and the things we planned to do in retirement that we can’t do now because we have to watch the money for the basics.”
She is not alone. In the survey, 58% say they go out to eat less often because of inflation. Almost half, 48%, say they drive less; 45% reduce their grocery spending; and 45% postpone or cancel travel or vacation plans.
Among households with an annual income of less than $50,000, 70% eat out less often, 60% cut back on groceries and 60% drive less.
Low marks for Biden and Trump
Biden’s jobs approval rating is essentially unchanged from the ratings he received in USA TODAY polls in February and June. By 3-1, those who disapprove “strongly” continue to outnumber those who approve “strongly”, 45%-15%.
Even among Democrats, while 77% approve, only 35% approve “strongly”.
Such a low approval rating has traditionally signaled major losses for the president’s party in the midterm elections, which take place precisely 100 days from now on Sunday. Cook’s nonpartisan policy report now predicts Republicans will win 15 to 30 House seats, well above the four the GOP must swing to gain control. The Senate, now split 50-50, is harder to predict.
But Trump is only a mixed blessing for the GOP. By nearly 3 to 1, 44% to 16%, respondents say Trump’s endorsement would make them less likely to support a congressional candidate rather than more likely.
Even among Republicans, only 38% say his endorsement would make them more likely to support a candidate; 53% say it would have no effect.
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The strongest enthusiasm seems to be for, well, someone else.
Six in 10 say a third or more other parties are needed, including 64% of Democrats and 46% of Republicans. Only 35% of Republicans, 24% of Democrats and 15% of Independents say the two major parties do a good job of representing their political views.
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“Trump kind of stirred the pot for everybody, and it just seems like it’s dividing our country where there’s no conversation for the American people,” said Danielle Cobb, 34, a Republican and partisan. of Trump from Tucson. , Arizona. “So it’s like a divorced couple who have kids and they stay together for the kids, even if they don’t realize you’re infecting all of your kids.”
Cobb, a real estate appraiser, fears partisan battles mean political leaders “forget us as Americans in our daily lives.”